Bubble time

I was talking with a friend about someone who recently made a $150,000 profit on a house in the greater NYC area. I remarked that if I made that much profit on a house, I would move to a cooler housing market, buy a house outright and save myself mortgage payments.

It started me thinking on the whole housing bubble notion. Try to stay with me on this one...

1. Bubbles hold together with surface tension, which in this case is really the willingness of consumers to continue to spend more and more for houses. (The spending is what blows the bubble up, but it's the mentality and unwillingness of consumers to cut and run that keeps it together...)

2. In the case of any money making venture, there is a tipping point where it just makes more sense to "cash out", even for people who love where they live and would be hard pressed to consider moving to a less "bubbly" housing market. (If someone told you that you could move to an area and not have house payments, but still have a house... - I'm sure there is a point everyone would consider that.)

3. But, housing is probably one of the least liquid investments for the average person. It's a drain financially and emotionally to move - and it's not always practical in terms of everyday life. That tipping point may be too high for our economy to ever reach.

So we have a lot of people making a lot of money on paper on their houses, but not realizing gain on it because if they sell, they have to move to another house.

The problem is that in relation to housing, prices on goods and services are in relative decline causing distortion. The average consumer is becoming more and more financially tied to their house, making available, in theory, less and less money for goods and services, that are worth less and less in relation to housing. With more and more people taking out interest-only mortgages (wow - what a truly dumb idea), the bubble WILL stop expanding, with the markets for goods and services equally ossified. (sorry... love that word... rigidified?) Don't kid yourself - it's just inventive financing and speculation is driving this boom now - no real expansion of wealth.

I don't think the "bubble" will burst, or even really deflate, because of the rigid nature of the housing market. The bubble is just hardening up as it expands. The problem is that fiscal policy isn't all that flexible when the bubble that's been created becomes as hard as a rock. With the economic throttle stuck open on full, we may be spinning our wheels in an economic rut for a long long long time to come. (See Japan - 1990's to... well have they ever really gotten out of theirs?)

Alan Greenspan may really deserve kudos for taking the runaway train of the 90's and smashing into the soft target of a housing bubble rather than letting it run off the tracks or into a harder barrier. We may be trapped in some kind of slowdown that may take 20 years to pull out of, but it may be better for everyone than the total disaster we were headed for.

I took two Economics courses in school. I am not an expert. I just like to think out loud. Feel free to comment.

Chicago is cool

I've been in Chicago since Sunday for training. Got to visit some friends in Northern Indiana on the way. I'd have taken pictures, but I forgot the camera... Oh well...

I decided to explore Monday morning before I had to go in, because I get up at an ungodly hour, and that's on EST... Unfortunately, I made too large of a loop and ended up booking it back to Arlington Heights to get back by 9am... Traffic kept getting worse and worse and worse. I'm such a dope. I made it back in time. My hotel is almost within walking distance, and I was almost late.

There's an awesome greek restaurant across the street from my hotel that does takeout. That just about made my trip...

Anyway... I was reading some of my newspapers online over dinner, since I have nothing better to do while I'm eating, and I caught this article. You know, I'm all for keeping our kids away from sex offenders and all, but I have two problems with this:

1. It seems like anytime lawmakers want to prove they're "tough on crime", it's time to kick the sex offender population one more time. This issue is far too black and white in the minds of the public. I am NOT disputing that child molestation is a terrible terrible thing. In fact, I'd like to see more being done about this problem. (Does that link bother you? Then I'm sure you'll agree with the following...)

What I am disputing that you or I are qualified 100% of the time to judge every person on a sex offender registry as being a terrible person that deserves everything our legal system puts on him/her. In fact, I will go so far as to guarantee, just by the laws of probability that there are people on a sex offender registry that don't deserve everything that has been piled on them. There has to be a line somewhere that protects these people, convicted felons that they are. I'm just not sure where that line is. Maybe it just bugs me when so many people blindly agree about a public policy issue.

2. I for one would be as interested to hear if there are any people who have committed hate crimes who live near me. Or frauds and scams, who knows who could be knocking on my door... See where this is going?

3. (This comes from the computing side of my mind...) A federal email registry based on zip code? Eh? Am I the only person reading this that has a giant red warning siren going off in my head? While I'm sure the federal government will do its utmost to protect the security of my email address,(cough, cough.) if I sign up for this list, I expect Illl get an email alert about male enhancements available in my zip code right after the alert about the pedophile...

In the end, a class act

I hate the Indiana Pacers.

But, I will miss watching Reggie Miller play. He is one of those players you love to hate, the consummate clutch player that can score 8 points in 10 seconds when you think the Knicks have the game in hand. He went out fighting, against his biggest top rival player (Rip Hamilton) and team (Detroit Pistons). He whined about "missed" calls, played up fouls with flailing hands and pained expressions, and made tough basket after tough basket, just like every other game he's played in the NBA since the late 80's. The respect the Pistons, the Pacers, and the fans paid him at the end of the game was well earned.

Ben Wallace may have blocked his final shot, but until it was in the hands of a Pistons player, I still thought it had a chance to go in, and the Pacers still had a chance to win the game and then the series. I've learned, as a fan, never to count out Reggie Miller until the clock is zero and all the players have left the court.

Revenge of the Right

Brings a whole new meaning to "Faith-Based Initiative", eh Senator Palpatine? (Clicking the image will help you with the context.)
Photo credit to Reuters.

Erie PA mayoral races are rockin'

The political heat is turned up in Erie Pennsylvania....

A new website called ExposeEriePoliticians.Com is causing an uproar which I find hilarious. (Could you guess? I'm always laughing during my posts...) I've got problems with all sides as follows:

1. You've got politicians like Joe Sinnott, Ian Murray, Jim Thompson all in an uproar. Jim Thompson's comments on the news were the peak of hilarity. Something to the effect of "we'll find them - these things are traceable". References being made to an FBI investigation?

It doesn't matter if any of the allegations are true. With the snoozefest that is the local Erie media, these guys are terrified that Erie residents will actually judge their competency through a vote. A little chest pounding and tough talk should do until the danger has passed.

2. Rick Filippi's office response - (Filippi came off relatively unscathed by the site, but it would really be jumping to conclusions that he's behind this - he's too smart... I hope.) Rick says something like "Why the heck is the FBI involved?" On this, I totally agree. Rick keeps me liking him just enough to maybe still vote for him on Tuesday. (And his assistant, Tina Mengine just cracks me up in her sound bites on television. She looks exhausted, and wryly annoyed with every new situation Rick finds himself in.)

3. The Erie Times-News sends out a panicky response to websites that are actually competition for goerie.com... When has the Times-News faced real competition? As far as local papers go, the Times-News is not bad at all. And the editorial quality still trounces the likes of WICU, or worse WJET, for whom spelling is even a challenge. (You think I exaggerate?) But it's only natural to have gotten complacent and you can tell the Times-News nervous. They should be.

4. And finally the author of the exposeeriepoliticians.com website him(her?)self... Yes, you've caused a stir. No, you're nothing special. Say what you want about the Erie Times-News, it's a real newspaper that actually attempts to fact check. Daily accusations and a slick looking logo still isn't journalism... Actually, on second thought, FOX News may be hiring....

People are just great...

People make me smile for some reason.

I was talking to a friend about "Lost" - the thrilling television show on Wednesdays at 8 on ABC, and I realized the reason I like Lost so much is because you get to see how people interact with one another with only limited knowledge about each other (ahem... real life), but you get to see the backstory behind each of those people. How does someone from this background interact with someone from that background? How do people judge, misjudge each other, find common ground or ways to disagree?

Sure - that's kind of basic to narrative in general, but the reason to watch Lost is to try to "figure things out" - where are they, what is happening to them, etc... So those elements of interaction are so much more richly drawn than your typical hour drama on television. There is a lot going on, little if anything is filler - much more like real life. After all, what narrative is deeper than that?

I'm kind of linking that perspective to real life. So many people you interact with on a daily basis... What's driving them? What's their story? I like to keep my story as open as possible for curious onlookers. I feel strangely at home that way. It lets me focus more on other people in my day-to-day life. I detest mystery, while accepting it as a fact of life. The more I can understand, the happier that I am. (I'm not alone in that, just making an observation...)

So I know it sounds strange, but I'm definitely in an "I like people" mood right now. Also, my brain is kind of twisted up right now so if this post didn't make much sense, perhaps I'll delete it when I regain my mental footing.

spring cleaning

I think it's sad that so many people in our country need to buy things to make themselves happy. I know people who say, "I'd be so happy if only I had...." except it's a cycle that repeats itself over and over and over. (And before I get up on the soap box, you should see my CD/DVD/Computer collection if you have any doubt I've done my fair share of this...)

The next time you want to buy something, just don't. Read a book, talk to a friend, go for a walk, work in the garden. Maybe spend a little time going through all the stuff you've accumulated in your life and decide if you're realistically going to ever use that item again.

For instance, I found a box that came up almost to my waist full of baseball and basketball cards in my basement. What the heck? And it's not like they're worth anything. (Anyone want a Lance Blanks rookie card?) I'm kind of a pack rat in certain respects, but you have to be honest with yourself. Keep what truly makes you happy. Otherwise, TOSS IT! Declutter your house. Feeling like you have control over your stuff might make you happy and you might find some hidden treasures you forgot you had!

You know you're old when....

the most exciting things this weekend for us were:

1. Replacing a lawnmower blade
2. Replanting grass in bare patches on our lawn
3. Cleaning out the garage

It may sound like I'm whining, but I'm not. The three preceding items were indeed quite exciting - we had a blast staying home and doing our spring cleaning. I just recognize on some level how silly I am.

We made shish kebabs for dinner yesterday for my mother-in-law and her husband. 1" cubes of sirloin and chicken breast marinated for 2 hours in Wegmans' Rosemary Balsalmic Vinegar Marinade. We put out bowls of baby onions, grape tomatoes, mushrooms, sliced zucchini, and sliced peppers. Self-skewered. Grill for about 15 minutes. (Worked out, because Tiff doesn't like peppers, I don't like tomatoes, Cathy doesn't like mushrooms and Cookie-Man doesn't like onions, so we were able to tell whose were whose....)

Sweatin' to the bizzare music videos

I discovered that Michel Gondry's DVD collection of music videos is an excellent workout video. I have an old Commodore monitor hooked up in our basement to a cheap DVD player, so that when I use the elliptical, I can watch the music videos. (Movies are too long and not peppy enough, and music over headphones isn't interesting enough...)

Here's my most recent play set (with favorites linked - links may not work really well unless you're on a highspeed connection):
Bjork - Joga (to warm up)
Chemical Brothers - Let Forever Be
Daft Punk - Around The World (this one is hard not to just dance to....)
Kylie Minogue - Come Into My World
White Stripes - The Hardest Button To Button

Then I switch to the other DVD in the set:

Massive Attack - Protection (to warm up again)
Bjork - Army of Me
Bjork - Human Behavior

Michel Gondry puts some other amazing videos together, so these aren't necessarily my favorites, but they're all very good. I put links in for what are probably (with Spike Jonze's directed, Fatboy Slim - Weapon of Choice) four of my favorites.

Definitely sick, but eating healthier

Bah.... I hate head colds. I am definitely sick, although not sick enough to have stayed home. (Apart from the rare migrane I think this is the first time in a year I've been sick...) I think I'd have to be really sick to stay home.

I ate my second vegetarian lunch in a row today...... Whoo-hoo! The healthy eating plan is kicking a little. Last night I was alone for dinner though, and sick, so I grabbed some comfort food instead of cooking healthy. I'm allowed to regress just a little, if the overall improvement is there. (And a veggie burrito, banana and an apple is much better than a bacon turkey club with chips and cookies. I actually like the taste better, and I think it's actually cheaper! Score three for me!) Gotta run though, I am taking another abbreviated lunch to catch up with work.

Bush steals the show

Not George.

In the interest of bipartisanship, I have to humbly admit that Laura Bush's speech at the White House Correspondent's Dinner was hilarious. Hilarious! Hopefully they'll post a transcript here. She had me in tears by the time she said that the ranch air invigorates Dick Cheney so much that he straps on his hiking boots and walks 20 or 30 steps. She's the first person even related to this administration other than Colin Powell that I can watch for more than ten seconds without reaching for the remote or the trash can. (And I'm not being sarcastic. She was really really funny. I do know that Laura didn't actually write the speech, but you can't tell me she didn't enjoy giving it!)

By the way, it is snowing AGAIN. When will the snow ever end?