I really would be amazed to see a McCain presidency at this point. Let's see where we are right now:
1. McCain is a political opportunist of the worst sort. The left won't vote for him, of course. The right wouldn't vote for him in the primaries, so he had to run to the right to go grab those votes and come very close to trashing his strong chances with the center. The Republicans that were motivated enough to drag themselves to the polls sensed the "chosen candidate" and played the dutiful "fall-in-line" role the party is known for. Will the Huckabee or Paul supporters go to the polls and check McCain? Some will. Some will not. Will some of the Hillary supporters go to McCain? Probably. (And, if they're the leftover racists from the old-line Democratic party, I say - what took you so long? Buh, bye. Your kind is dying out.)
2. The religious right is in political disarray, for good reason. They don't like any of their options right now. (Note, I say "political" disarray... I think if Mitt Romney had been a Baptist instead of a Mormon, Obama'd be ten points behind. And his veep would have been John McCain - an excellent choice for vice-president.) McCain is a rich politico with a beer tycoon wife. The Obamas may be rich now too, but they're definitely not spending mommy and daddy's money like the Bushes or McCains. I think a lot of the rank and file of the Republican party would be willing to swallow another richie rich, if he spoke their language like Bush. McCain does not.
3. Sarah Palin. LOL. Is she for real? Obama may not have much leadership experience, but he was president of the Harvard Law Review. He's smart and a quick study. And with Biden around to be counsel, he'll be in good shape. Does the McCain campaign really think this "inexperience" gives them the green light to put a former mayor of a town smaller than the one I live in, who then rode a wave of discontent to the governorship of a state smaller than the city of Pittsburgh? Mayor Luke Ravenstahl seems pretty cool, but can you see Obama picking him to be veep?
This matters to a lot of folks on the right, folks I disagree with philosophically, but who I agree with as far as caliber of candidate. And unlike the Biden mentor relationship with Obama, McCain doesn't even seem to be consistent with himself, let alone be able to mentor someone else.
4. Sarah Palin. LOL. Her, um, seventeen-year-old daughter is going to be an unwed mother, unless we have a wedding before 2009. This doesn't bother me. I am friends with two women specifically who had children before they were eighteen out of wedlock, and they rock. But, this is going to and SHOULD bother a lot of the religious right voters, who would have jumped all over this, had this poor (almost) woman's last name been Obama or Biden. More drifting from the polls.
5. Katrina comes back to haunt the GOP. We get reminded of how botched of an even more bloated federal government we have thanks to Bush and company on the eve of their own convention. This just brings us to this "we strayed from our mission, we deserve to be out for a few years" sense of doom shadowing the GOP. They just don't want it bad enought.
Finally, the Democrats have an inspirational leader that is probably the best we've seen since Kennedy. We may have had a messy primary, but we didn't pick too soon. We nailed it.
If the GOP wins in November, I will be certain that there is a God, and that "he" is Republican.
My prediction. Obama, and more of a nail-biter than you would think, because of the Republican advantage in the electoral college. Romney will be nominated in 2012 by the Republicans. If they have any sense. (Not that I'd vote for him, but he's disciplined, and that's something.)
